Roy Shinar Cohen
Recent weeks in American politics have been as crazy as it gets. Biden’s debate appearance, Trump’s attempted assassination, Biden dropping out, Harris uniting the party and gaining in the polls, and Trump scrambling to find an answer. A Democratic lead, that only recently seemed impossible, is now a reality. Harris is leading in The Economist’s polls tracker, in Nate Silver’s model and, according to The New York Times, in three crucial battleground states. The question, however, is whether Harris will be able to maintain this momentum, continue to increase her lead, and, most importantly, win in key states.
The chain of events that led us to this moment began in the first minutes of the Trump-Biden debate on 27 June. It was clear almost instantly that Biden was not able to perform at the level expected of American Presidents. As Ezra Klein wrote the following day, “The diminishment of Biden’s skills as a communicator… is an inability to do part of the job of the president”. For the next three weeks, a semi-public struggle over the future of the Democratic ticket was unfolding. Leaders, such as former Leader of the House Nancy Pelosi, repeatedly reignited the debate, major donors stopped funding the Biden campaign, and the media remained laser-focused on this drama.
In the meantime, Trump was confident he will win in November. A week after the debate a video circulated online showing him announcing he kicked and beat Biden out of the race. Not long after, the former President survived an assasination attempt while keeping his cool and attaining a historic picture. And finally, he arrived at the Republican National Convention as a seemingly unstoppable hero who people believed was saved by the grade of God. This over-confidence assured Trump made Trump take a bold-choice on his running mate, picking Senator J. D. Vance who was promoted by the far-right flank of the Republican party. Vance, a champion of Project 2025, appeared to be a reasonable choice if victory was in the bag, but then everything changed.
24 days after the debate on 21 July, quarantined at home with Covid, President Biden announced to the nation that he would not seek reelection. Twenty-seven minutes after dropping out of the race, Joe Biden endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris. She remained extremely loyal to the President and campaign throughout its hardest days, and in the 24 hours following Biden’s announcement, Harris did not waste a moment. She worked the phones to gain the support of the party and its donors. On the first day, she raised $81 million. In the first week, she raised $200 million, largely from small and first-time donors, and recruited 170,000 volunteers. By the end of July Harris had raised $310 million in a major show of support from all parts of the Democratic coalition.
But this was not the only way support for Harris manifested. Old videos of her quickly circulated on social media, drawing on her catchphrases, dance moves, laughter and cooking. These videos, some of which Republicans spread because they thought would ridicule her, have essentially become free advertisement. Unlike in 2020, Kamala Harris became an online sensation with an organic and genuine following among major parts of the Democratic party. Meanwhile, the race to become her running mate gained steam.
From the onset, Governors, Senators and Cabinet Secretaries made clear they were trying out for the job. What started in substantial speculation about nearly a dozen possibilities was quickly narrowed down to a handful; Governors Cooper, Shapiro and Waltz; Senator Kelly, and Secretary Buttigieg. Notably, in an attempt to “balance the ticket”, they were all white men, yet each brought different strengths to the table. Finally, after an intense unofficial mini-primary for the job, Harris picked the Governor of Minnesota, Tim Waltz. Waltz stood out when he quickly (and strategically) managed to change the entire Party’s message about Trump and Vance around “weirdness”.
Since Trump’s attempted assassination and the Republican National Convention ended nearly a month ago, the Trump campaign has been scrambling for media attention. Picking a running mate, and especially one not very well known, assisted the Harris campaign in maintaining the media’s focus. This is expected to continue in the coming weeks as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) will begin on 19 August in Chicago. Harris will then have the benefit of the “convention polling boost”, which usually helps the party at the centre of attention gain increased support in the polls.
This means that Harris’s momentum, which already places her with a narrow lead in many polls, could continue throughout August. Her lead is on average, based on poll trackers, around 1-2 percent. However, according to new polling done by The New York Times, Harris leads by 4 percentage points in several key battleground states. Even before these narrow advantages appeared, Trump and the Republican party appeared to be “panicking”. While “weird” is proving to be a successful attack, Trump has failed to land meaningful punches against Harris.
Without a change in strategy or luck, we can expect this dynamic to continue. However, there is at least one substantial pre-planned event that can shake the state of affairs: the Harris-Trump debate on 10 September. As we have seen earlier this summer, presidential debates can have enormous ramifications, and although the odds of Trump or Harris dropping out are slim, it could change voters’ perceptions or attitudes toward both candidates. The debate will happen nineteen days after the DNC and fifty-six days before the election, and thus will be crucial in determining the way both Harris and Trump enter the final stretch.
During the debate, Trump and Harris will attempt to assign blame for issues they believe are crucial for this election – the economy, immigration, and women’s reproductive rights. They will both try to appear “strong” and presidential. And they will try to ridicule their opponent. For Harris, who has adopted the language of “weird”, there is a risk of appearing elitist and as if she looks down on Republican voters. For Trump, who has recently focused on Harris’s race, there is a risk of alienating women and people of colour. Either, or both, options could make crucial blocks of voters reconsider their upcoming choice at the ballot box in ways that are hard to predict.
In short, with less than 85 days until the election, the Harris campaign seems to be finding its message while Trump struggles. Harris maintains her momentum and begins to pick up a lead in the polls. This lead is likely to grow in the coming weeks, but the debate could change that and reshuffle the cards. That would come in the crucial days right before voters make their final decision. Until then, both campaigns will test different attacks and invest massively in the key battleground states.
Still, even if Trump does not manage to regain the momentum he had a mere month ago, Harris may not be in the clear. This presidential race is extremely tight, and, at the moment, the polls are so close that they cannot be said to ensure victory for either candidate. While the Harris momentum is real and while she has continued to gain in the polls, it may not be enough to get her to the Oval Office. Because of the brevity of her campaign, Harris may do everything right and still not have enough runway to take off.
