Roy Shinar Cohen | News Contributor
The CNN Trump-Biden debate of June 27th was viewed by approximately 50 million people, rivalled perhaps only by the view counts of the countless clips later circulated on YouTube and social media. However, for all the attention and interest it garnered, the main topic of discussion was not policy – the Southern border, healthcare, Gaza, Ukraine etc. – but the health of President Joe Biden. From the first seconds as he walked on stage, to the last ones, as he was helped off stage by First Lady Jill Biden, The President faced his greatest reckoning yet for what he is: an old man. This confirmed voters’ fears, caused panic in the Democratic party, encouraged elements of the liberal establishment to call for Biden’s replacement on the Democratic ticket, and compelled a national debate, long-awaited by some, debate about the viability of Biden’s candidacy.
Joe Biden, born in 1942, is the oldest-ever American President. He started his political career early, elected to the US Senate before he was 30 years old, in 1972. There, he served until January 2009, when he became Obama’s Vice President. In 2020, Biden ran for President for the third time, and his age already worried voters. Nevertheless, the Party establishment rallied around him, and some among those concerned about his age were won over by his ability to campaign and debate, and his adoption of some Progressive policy proposals. In fact, Biden won the first presidential debate of 2020, with his infamous “Will you shut up, man?” line, and went on to win the most votes in history with a 66% turnout, the highest since 1900. This makes the difference between Biden of 2020 and 2024 stark and undeniable.
Last Thursday, during the first debate of 2024, Biden stiffly and slowly walked on stage towards the podium. He spoke quietly, and with a hoarse voice, struggling to find the end of his sentences, and often confusing words (“We have a thousand trillionaires in America – I mean, billionaires in America”). The President attempted to remember his scripted answers to anticipated questions but often did not make much sense, moving incoherently between issues of abortion, immigration, and crime. Unsurprisingly, Trump took advantage of Biden’s weaknesses, at some point replying to Biden by saying “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either”. Still, Trump appeared to have saved some punches and his strategy was, as Time Magazine put it, to “let Biden bury himself”. They explained Trump did not interrupt Biden or try to become the main story. What he did was “he sought to let Biden self-immolate and feed the perception that he’s too enfeebled to retain the presidency.”
Anyone who watched the debate could not ignore the contrast between Trump’s and Biden’s appearance. Trump spoke mostly clearly and made mocking facial expressions – basically, Trump as we know him. Biden, however, looked dreadful. While Trump spoke, he frequently stared in a random direction, his face frozen and mouth ajar. Biden arguably performed better than how other 81-year-olds would, but that is not the criteria. Biden did not appear to be fit or able to serve as President of the United States. Sadly, Biden’s performance was so dismal that it distracted from Trump’s many blatant lies and unclear comments, such as discussing golfing abilities and calling Biden a “bad Palestinian.” Throughout the debate, Trump’s lies became worse as he realized Biden could not hold him accountable and the CNN moderators did not fact-check, which made the whole affair even worse.
According to Andrew Feinberg, who attended the debate, from its first minutes the atmosphere was gloomy. The room was “horror-struck” and Biden’s aides “fell silent.” When the 90 minutes ended, Republicans were cheerful while Democrats were nowhere to be found. Finally, they emerged together “as a group, grim-faced, to face a wave of reporters, producers and videographers.” Soon after the headlines started rolling in: The Economist declared “Joe Biden’s horrific debate performance cast his entire candidacy into doubt”; the Wall Street Journal wrote “The World Saw Biden Deteriorating. Democrats Ignored the Warnings.”; and the New York Times wrote “This Debate, We Could Hear Biden Speak. There His Troubles Began”. The next day, the Biden campaign held a rally in North Carolina meant to assuage fears. The First Lady gave a powerful speech and President Biden looked much better than the night before, but the differences between the two events were quickly pointed out. The rally was in the afternoon, and not evening, and Biden read from a teleprompter, which went a long way in helping him reach the end of the sentence.
The articles were joined by the liberal establishment’s opinions. Thomas Friedman, the respected New York Times columnist and friend of Biden wrote that watching the debate made him “weep”. He added, “I cannot remember a more heartbreaking moment in American presidential campaign politics in my lifetime, precisely because of what it revealed: Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election.” The New Yorker’s Editor, David Remnick, wrote, “watching Thursday’s debate, observing Biden wander into senselessness onstage, was an agonizing experience”. He added that for Biden to stay in the race would be “pure vanity” which is uncharacteristic of Biden. Finally, the New York Times Editorial Board wrote that “voters cannot be expected to ignore” the fact that “Mr. Biden is not the man he was four years ago”. Moreover, they said the best chance to beat Trump is for Democrats to “acknowledge that Mr. Biden can’t continue his race and create a process to select someone more capable to stand in his place.”
What voters have long told pollsters, journalists and Democrats but the party refused to listen has suddenly become an unavoidable conversation. Is Joe Biden fit to be President and should he be the Democratic candidate stopped being a taboo question. However, the establishment of the Democratic Party stood by President Biden publicly. Major Democrats in Congress, former President Obama, and the main contenders to replace Biden tweeted wrote articles and went on TV shows to support him. Additionally, the campaign blitz-called important donors and supporters who are crucial for its continuation. Yet the Biden campaign failed to reassure the public. Data For Progress found that 53% of voters are more concerned about Biden’s age and mental health after the campaign.
While the Party leadership and former President Obama stood by Biden publicly, the subtext of their statements, and sometimes what they are saying behind closed doors, is different. For instance, former President Obama has privately told allies that a Biden win was challenging before the debate and has become less likely afterwards. Additionally, former Speaker of the House and Biden ally, Nancy Pelosi, said asking questions about Biden’s fitness is “legitimate”, and in particular “Is this an episode or is this a condition?”, while she still supports his candidacy.
Meanwhile, new polling reveals Trump increased his lead in the polls. According to Times/Siena, he leads Biden by eight per cent among registered voters and six per cent among likely voters. Additionally, 74 per cent of voters believe Biden is too old for the job, which is five per cent higher than before the debate. Moreover, Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ chief political analyst, believes “there is room for him [Biden] to keep falling” in the polls. The negative polling, lack of ability by Biden and his campaign to change the narrative and perception that there is still time to switch candidates has led to efforts by major donors to pressure Biden to drop out of the race. Several major Democratic donors are stopping their financial support to the Democratic party until Biden is replaced as the Presidential candidate, while others are shifting their donations from supporting Biden to supporting potential replacements or Democrats running for other offices.
It appears that not many people, other than Trump and the Biden family, want Joe Biden to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. Although their reasons for supporting Biden are very different, the fact they are Biden’s strongest supporters right now is telling. It is still impossible to know what the final decision will be and whether Biden will remain the Democratic candidate (Biden vowed to stay “to the end” on July 3rd). Yet, what is clear is that the Trump-Biden debate was the precursor to the real and long-anticipated debate. The next days and week will be crucial to the formation, or lack thereof, of a critical mass of Democratic officials, donors and voters who want Biden replaced. For us who read the news, it could be difficult to pierce the veil of briefings, anonymous sources and attempts to endlessly spin the story. We can focus on polls (for example how potential replacements compare to Biden), donor pressure or other strategies, but none is certain. So, the only thing we can do until the fog clears is stay tuned.
