Farrell Gregory | Policy Fellow, Foundation for American Innovation | RA, Yorktown Institute
As he prepares to take office in January 2025, President-elect Trump faces a wide array of pressing security concerns: war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and historically tense relations with China. For each of these universally acknowledged issues, he could take a sharply different approach than outgoing President Biden. But when it comes to the less-discussed threat of vulnerable critical mineral supply chains, President-elect Trump should simultaneously build on the achievements of his first term and improve the Biden administration’s mineral security strategy.
Between 2016 and 2020, the first Trump administration issued several executive orders to reshape critical mineral policy amid increasingly strained ties with China. Recognising the vulnerabilities that come from relying on competitors for essential military and commercial manufacturing inputs, President-elect Trump issued Executive Order 13817 to provide an outline for mineral and supply chain strategy that executive agencies would fill in. Towards the end of 2020, he used Executive Order 13953 to declare the critical mineral crisis a national emergency and further directed executive agencies to take action.
Upon taking office, President Biden utilised a wide range of tools to address the mineral crisis. Executive Order 14017 initiated a 100-day review of critical mineral supply chains. Portions of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act subsidise mineral production costs and fund certain mining projects. He was similarly active abroad: launching the fourteen-country Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) in June 2022 and conducting two different executive agreements with the EU and Japan in 2023.
But the US’ critical mineral supply chains remain vulnerable to disruption and threats from abroad. American industry is heavily reliant on China for minerals with essential commercial and military applications. China refines more than 65% of the world’s lithium and cobalt, as well as 91% of graphite – minerals necessary for batteries, munitions, and drones. And China has proven itself more than willing to restrict the flow of certain critical minerals; in August, it introduced export controls for antimony, a critical mineral with a number of military applications. The incoming administration has the unique opportunity to build on President Trump’s existing critical mineral legacy and address the shortcomings of the current administration’s approach. By further enabling domestic mining, utilising price support and tariffs, and expanding tax incentives, the Trump administration has the potential to reduce America’s critical mineral vulnerability.
The final mineral action of Trump’s previous term could be his first this time around: declaring the critical mineral crisis to be a national emergency. President Biden allowed Executive Order 13943’s declaration to expire, but on day one, Trump should bring it back. The previous declaration relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which provides the president with broad authority over economic matters in times of crisis, including the levelling of sanctions, imposition of tariffs, and export controls. By once again declaring the obvious—that the critical mineral crisis is a national emergency—the second Trump administration widens the range of tools it can use to fortify our supply chains.
Second, President-elect Trump can capitalise on America’s abundant natural resources to alleviate our vulnerability to supply chain disruptions abroad. The difficulty of the critical mineral crisis is that while some minerals are scarce because the country doesn’t have any domestic deposits, others are scarce because it chooses not to use its own natural resources. In 2018, the Trump administration began permitting mining again in the Superior National Forest in Minnesota, the site of Antofagasta PLC’s potential mine for nickel and copper—both critical minerals. In 2023, the Biden administration put in place a 20-year moratorium on mining across more than 200,000 acres in the area, imperilling the development of Antofagasta PLC’s mine. While placing a priority on environmental protection, the Trump administration could still enable mining operations by rescinding the moratorium and opening up some of the Bureau of Land Management’s 245 million acres of public land for critical mineral mining.
Finally, the Trump administration has a wide range of tools at its disposal to address mineral prices—some of which the Biden administration has used. In addition to a slew of tariffs that President Biden introduced on imports of Chinese semiconductors, batteries, and electric vehicles, he also imposed 25% tariffs on certain Chinese-exported critical minerals such as natural graphite, to take effect in 2026. In the meantime, President-elect Trump has many options for addressing price issues that destabilise America’s domestic mineral market. Tariffs, which he has enthusiastically promoted throughout the election, could make the price of American-produced minerals more competitive. But Trump may also consider reviving a price-floor plan that the Department of Energy was rumoured to be considering earlier this year. Supply shocks from abroad that drive mineral prices dramatically up and down destabilise America’s efforts to build up greater mining capabilities. In 2023, the price of lithium, a critical mineral, crashed by 75% compared to the year before. As a result, the mining firm Albemarle postponed opening a lithium hydroxide processing plant in South Carolina. Without stability for mineral markets, efforts to grow America’s domestic mining and processing capacity will face strong headwinds.
The critical mineral crisis is increasingly regarded as an issue by a bipartisan range of lawmakers and policymakers—this is in no small part thanks to the executive orders that Trump issued during his first term to outline and begin implementing a national mineral strategy. Similarly, President Biden worked closely with allies abroad to lay the foundation for more resilient mineral supply chains. Now, empowered by his electoral success and majorities in Congress, President-elect Trump has an opportunity to build on the legacy of his first term and remedy the shortcomings of America’s current critical mineral strategy.
