Roy Shinar Cohen
A single word, “guilty”, repeated thirty-four times, sealed Trump’s New York trial, for now. Throughout the seven-week-long trial, the NY jury heard testimonies from Trump’s once-lawyer, now enemy, Michael Cohen; his former Press Secretary Hope Hicks; the ‘tabloid king’ and publisher of the National Inquirer David Pecker; and, of course, porn star Stormy Daniels, who Trump still denies having intercourse with. The case was based on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s untested legal theories. It was criticised from every corner of the political spectrum. And yet, on May 30th, it prevailed, and the jury found Trump guilty on all counts. For the first time in American history, the words “American President” and “convicted felon” describe the same person.
In the United States, where the political climate is hyper-polarized, it is unsurprising the narratives around Trump’s conviction are different and contradictory. On the one hand, a series of recent polls reveals the verdict may have negatively affected his reelection prospects. According to YouGov, although only 23% of Americans thought Trump would be found guilty, 50% agreed with the jury in a snap poll and only 30% disagreed. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 10% of Republicans are less likely to vote for Trump after his conviction. On the other hand, the former President announced he raised nearly 53 million dollars in the 24 hours after receiving the guilty verdict.
Yet, the story of the contradicting beliefs around the conviction is larger than polling (which should be taken with a grain of salt) and a fundraising spike. As both researchers and historians found repeatedly, narratives are immensely powerful. They can mobilise people, as was seen on January 6th 2021 when a crowd of Trump supporters believed the 2020 election was stolen and attacked the US Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Narratives are also highly persistent, as the majority of Republican voters still believe Trump won the 2020 election. Today, the narratives around the trial are everywhere and are affected by politicians, journalists, and social media. Let’s look at some of them.
First, the official Democratic party stance on the Trump trial. Initially, President Biden kept relatively quiet about the case while it went on (considering his opponent sat at the defence table every day and the world heard about his sexual adventures). On May 31st, however, Biden said Trump’s guilty verdict affirmed the American principle that “no one is above the law”, and added that “Trump was given every opportunity to defend himself.” He added that the jury was “chosen the same way as every jury in America.” Yet, by June 3rd Biden changed his rhetoric at a closed fund-raiser. He said it is “reckless and dangerous for anyone to say that’s rigged just because they don’t like the outcome” and called Trump “unhinged.” The Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York, said “The undeniable fact is Donald Trump went through the same legal process that all Americans go through” and added that as Trump considers his next legal steps “there should continue to be no outside political influence, intimidation, or interference.” In other words, the Democratic leaders maintain Trump’s trial was fair and was not any different than any other and attempt to refrain from discussing the matter in strong terms in public.
However, looking past the Democratic leaders the picture is slightly different. According to The New York Times, which conducted post-conviction interviews with over 50 former and current Democratic officials across the US, the party wants to put Trump’s conviction front and centre. The interviews “revealed a party hungry to tell voters that Mr. Trump’s conviction makes him unfit,” and many officials are worried President Biden will not press the argument. This pressure is likely to have encouraged Biden to speak differently on the matter. In the meantime, some Democrats are not waiting for Biden and already speak their mind. For instance, Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia said after the conviction that “Trump is an aspiring tyrant who intends to rule, not lead, the United States.” Another Senator, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, went for a simpler message, “Boom.”, after Trump’s conviction. In parallel, some Democratic or liberal-leaning independent voters celebrated the conviction across the United States.
Next, although former President Trump is not yet the official leader of the Republican party (until the GOP convention which starts on July 15th), he should be treated as such. The first quote visitors read on his website is “They’re not after me, they’re after you… I’m just standing in the way!”. After hearing his sentence Trump said “It's a rigged trial, a disgrace” and emphasized the trial venue was unfair because he only won “5% or 6% in this district,” insinuating it was the reason the jurors were against him.
The Speaker of the House, Republican Mike Johnson of Louisiana said “Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.” He added: “The American people rightfully see this is lawfare, and they know it is—and dangerous.” The Republican party’s leaders emphasised Trump’s verdict was corrupt and dangerous, potentially even to regular Americans.
Some Republicans were more extreme in their reactions. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who is hoping to become Trump’s Vice-President, was extremely visual in his response. He published videos of political show trials in Cuba and Russia during the Cold War. Rubio wrote, “Marxists and the far left have always used sham show trials to target their political opponents; Now they are doing it in America to target Trump.” Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia wrote on X that “The American people are OFFENDED by all of this”, “Joe Biden convicts his top political opponent of fake crimes yesterday” and, “NO Federal funding to New York!; I’m calling for it!!!; New York needs to drop their conviction of Pres Trump!; The whole thing was illegal!” And Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said “President Trump is 100% right: If Democrats can get away with persecuting him, they can do it to anyone. These Marxist thugs will do anything to stay in power, and that is terrifying.”
Unsurprisingly, these messages influence the Republican Party’s supporters. Moreen Dowd wrote in her column that many Republicans, including her siblings, view convicted Trump as a martyr. They believed the trail was “a sham” and they could be arrested next, which led some to rally around the flag and support him. Moreover, according to Ken Bensinger who spoke with the New York Times, some Republican voters and supporters wrote online “in vague terms about a civil war” and declared the death of the United States. However, he added that although this rhetoric is “nasty and ugly,” researchers he spoke with do not believe the US is “in a violent moment” because the “prosecution of Jan. 6 rioters has deterred people from putting themselves at risk by engaging in political violence.”
Nevertheless, Bensinger’s comment should be taken along with two facts. First, the differences between Democratic and Republican news consumption are substantial and influential. While over 50% of Democrats trust eight news sources (PBS, AP, the Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, the New York Times, NPR and Broadcast), over 50% of Republicans only trust one news source – Fox News. The other three news sources more than a quarter of Republicans trust are OAN, Newsmax and Breitbart. This means Republicans get a far narrower set of facts and perspectives and are far likelier to be influenced by politicised media.
Second, Republican officials are ramping up warnings of election fraud in 2024. While until the 2020 election, Trump made a total of approximately 100 statements on stealing the election, he has already made over 500 statements towards the coming election (with nearly five months to go). And Trump is not alone. Republicans are speaking, writing, and passing legislation regarding election integrity at increasing rates across the US. So, voters across the United States continue receiving a very different representation of the world from the media, hear different messages from the politicians they trust, and take a strong emotional interest in Trump’s conviction.
No one knows what sentence Trump will receive in July or can certainly say how it will influence the election. Political violence should never be taken lightly, and after January 6th 2021, it should be thought of as, at least potentially, bubbling beneath the surface. The narratives surrounding the Trump trial are powerful. For Republicans, the conviction eroded people’s trust in the political and legal system (however much of it existed), linked to powerful symbols (such as martyrdom) and lowered their sense of personal security. On the other hand, it made Democrats jolly and weary of Trump’s autocratic tendencies. Yet with their happiness, Democrats risk reinforcing Republican views and fears. These sentiments should not be underestimated, the stakes are too high.
