Fikayo Akeredolu
The 28th UN Conference of the Parties (COP28) has already been plagued with various controversies.
There has been displeasure about the climate conference hosted by one of the top producers of fossil fuels and issues relating to COP28 emails. These controversies should not detract from the importance of COP28, especially for countries in the Global South. For all the issues around the annual summit, it is still the largest multilateral forum for dealing with climate change.
COP28 is of particular significance as it marks the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake, a comprehensive assessment of the progress made in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. A synthesis report of key findings showed that the world is far from achieving the Paris Agreement's goals. If action is not taken before the second Global Stocktake in 2028, we may witness the devastating reality of global temperatures soaring beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
For Africa, the situation is critical. Despite its limited contribution to climate change, Africa is the most vulnerable to its impacts under all climate scenarios above 1.5 degrees Celsius. There is a need for urgent multilateral action on mitigation and adaptation to prevent and reverse the consequences of climate change. Africa and its trading partners, of which China is top, must work at COP28 to find solutions adapted for the continent.
China has the largest economy and is most influential in the multilateral sphere in the Global South. To what extent can it use this leverage to aid Africa’s negotiations at COP? President Xi has also pushed for increased south-south solidarity to help Global South countries multiply their impact on the world stage, ensure their representation in multilateral forums, and foster a fairer and more equitable international economic order. How will China translate this push into action for Africa at COP28?
Financing Adaptation & Mitigation
One central theme that continues to arise in the climate conversation is the issue of financing for African countries to fund adaptation and mitigation efforts. To implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, African countries will need $2.8 trillion between 2020-2030. However, the continent only receives annual climate finance flows of $30 billion. At the recently concluded Africa Climate Week, African leaders demanded a scaling up of climate finance and operationalizing the loss and damage fund agreed on during COP27.
China has featured heavily in the debate between Africa and Western nations over financial help to countries suffering the effects of climate change. During COP27 in Egypt, China lent its voice to support the demand of developing countries for a loss and damage fund from developed countries. China's then-special envoy for climate change, Xie Zhenhua, made it clear that China has no obligation to provide loss and damage funding. Still, he emphasised China’s willingness to support loss and damage efforts with other developing countries through Global South cooperation. He did not provide exact details, but China continues to push for South-South cooperation, which includes a climate cooperation fund.
China has always pushed the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The idea is that developing countries (including China) should share responsibilities for developing and adopting information communication and scientific research while not incurring any economic burdens or requirements to reduce energy use.
Going into COP28 in the UAE, we can expect China to continue advocating for this principle. As calls in the Global South get louder for changes to the multilateral financial system and accountability from their developed counterparts, concerted and targeted Sino–African cooperation could lead to the activation of the loss and damage fund. It could also push developed countries to fulfil their COP15 still unfulfilled pledge of $100 billion per year for climate efforts in developing countries.
Discussing Africa’s Debt Crisis
Another critical area for assessing Sino–African relations going into COP28 is Africa’s worsening debt burden.
Africa’s debt is at its highest level in over a decade. 49 African countries owe 39% of their debt to multilateral institutions, 35% to private creditors (excluding Chinese private creditors), and 12% of the debt burden on the continent is owed to China and Chinese lenders. As a result of COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and soaring inflation, African countries have had to take on even more debt, and now 21 low-income African countries are either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress.
Climate finance has typically been offered through debt-creating means. Climate emergencies exacerbate these problems because they have little or no option other than borrowing to deal with recovery and reconstruction costs after an extreme climate event or environmental hazard. Using loans and other forms of debt to carry out climate financing will reduce a country’s capacity for fiscal stability and debt sustainability, thus worsening the debt crisis on the continent. This means many countries on the continent are struggling with limited monetary and fiscal space, compounding debt amid competing development priorities.
In an ideal world, COP28 could provide a platform for Africa’s creditors to discuss resolving the debt issue without impacting mitigation and adaptation efforts on the continent. In January 2023, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated his country’s commitment to supporting the UAE’s goal of ensuring COP28 responded to “developing countries’ core concerns.”
Conclusion
Almost eight years after the Paris Climate Agreement was signed, the global community is not on track to meet its target of limiting global warming. Getting the Global Stocktake right is pivotal for COP28 and sets the stage for future stocktakes and climate action over the next decade. For China and Africa, which account for approximately 36% of the global population, the stakes are even higher as some countries already face climate change's consequences.
As China’s President Xi continues to push for increased Global South cooperation, China’s willingness to push the agenda of countries in the region will be vital to achieving Chinese foreign policy goals. Going into COP28, Chinese and African negotiators have the opportunity to work together to push for funding for adaptation and mitigation without exacerbating debt issues.
